The Center for Economic Development and Business Research at 萝莉社has released online population projections by age cohort from 2000 through 2030 for all Kansas counties.
The online population forecast database includes two sets of projections. The first projection set is based on the continuation of migration patterns (domestic and international) as experienced in each county from 2000 through 2005. The second set of projections assumes a net migration rate of zero throughout the forecast period.
According to Janet Harrah, director of CEDBR: 鈥淯nlike birth and death rates, which change very slowly over time, migration patterns often change rapidly and significantly over a relatively short amount of time. Therefore, it is important to examine the assumptions for migration patterns closely when forecasting population trends.鈥�
Based on recent migration patterns, the state鈥檚 population is projected to increase, on average, 0.53 percent annually and grow to 3.124 million by 2030.
Based on a zero-migration assumption, the state鈥檚 population is projected to increase, on average, 0.71 percent annually and grow to 3.264 million by 2030.
鈥淭he population estimates for Kansas illustrate the impact changing migration patterns can have on population growth,鈥� Harrah said. 鈥淛ust stemming the tide of out migration in Kansas would result in a population increase of 140,000 over the next 25 years.鈥�
In addition to the above projection sets, additional demographic details were generated for each county, including population counts by gender, race and ethnicity. Using the center鈥檚 model, 鈥渨hat if analyses鈥� also can be conducted using various migration assumptions.
Inquiries for more detailed data or additional analyses can be made by e-mailing cedbr@wichita.edu.
The population projections are available online at www.wichita.edu/cedbr.