James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water is off to a strong start in China despite significant uncertainty surrounding the public health situation in the country.

As of 12pm, local time on Friday, the film had earned $15.2 million (RMB106 million), including Thursday night previews, according to regional box office consultancy Artisan Gateway.

The firm currently forecasts Avatar 2 to finish the weekend with an opening haul of $119 million to $128 million (RMB830 million-RMB 890 million).

China’s largest ticketing app, Maoyan, meanwhile, is projecting The Way of Water to conclude its local run with $360 million (RMB 2.51 billion),

which would make it Hollywood’s biggest movie in the country this year by far (more than double Jurassic World: Dominion‘s $157 million China haul) and the third-biggest U.S. title of all time in China.

But even in the best of times, Maoyan’s full-run forecasts — a projection that leverages early sales rates, users’ ratings and the performance trajectories of past titles — tend to be subject to significant revision during the first days of release.

And Avatar 2‘s earnings prospects are especially hard to gauge thanks to the uncertainties surrounding the widespread COVID outbreaks currently sweeping China’s major cities.

Artisan Gateway is forecasting a wide range for Avatar 2’s career total — $315 million to $415 million (RMB 2.2 billion-RMB 2.9 billion) — reflecting the unpredictability of the moment.